Power Shifts and Party Crises: Political Predictions That Could Reshape South Africa
As January comes to an end and we prepare for what promises to be one of the most politically charged years in recent history, it is an opportune moment to reflect on the evolving political landscape. Based on current trends and political manoeuvring, here are my predictions for South African politics in 2025.
1. The Government of National Unity (GNU) Will Hold
Despite tensions and ideological clashes between the Democratic Alliance (DA) and the African National Congress (ANC), the DA is unlikely to withdraw from the Government of National Unity. While the Freedom Front Plus (FF+) may exit due to mounting frustrations, the DA is likely to remain as long as the ANC stays committed to the coalition. This alliance will hold until at least 2027, when the ANC holds its next elective conference, keeping the political dynamics stable in the short term.
2. John Steenhuisen Will Step Down as DA Leader
Steenhuisen's tenure as DA leader has been largely unremarkable, serving primarily as a transitional figure. He lacks the political momentum needed to take the party forward, and he likely recognises that. As the party faces internal divisions and media-driven scrutiny, Steenhuisen will preemptively announce that he will not seek re-election. Geordin Hill-Lewis, emerging as a media darling, poses a direct threat to Steenhuisen’s future. Rather than face a humiliating defeat, Steenhuisen will step aside, likely transitioning into a senior role within the DA’s federal executive while still retaining his ministerial position. This move would provide the party with a chance to refresh its leadership ahead of future elections.
3. Patricia de Lille Will Resign as GOOD Leader
Although Patricia de Lille will retain her position in Cabinet, she will likely step down as leader of the GOOD party. With Brett Herron positioned as a capable successor, de Lille’s resignation will allow the party to re-energise its leadership and strategy, particularly as it prepares for the 2026 local government elections. Herron, with a fresh vision and strong organisational abilities, could be instrumental in revitalising the party’s fortunes.
4. Panyaza Lesufi May Join MK
Panyaza Lesufi's political prospects within the ANC are increasingly uncertain. His leadership in Gauteng has come under fire, and his credibility is swiftly eroding. Faced with a potential blame game over the province’s governance failures, Lesufi might defect to uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), rebranding himself as a vocal critic of the party. This strategic move would allow him to distance himself from the political fallout in Gauteng while positioning himself for a potential leadership role within MK, all while capitalising on anti-ANC sentiment.
5. Michael Beaumont Will Exit ActionSA
This is perhaps my boldest prediction. While I debated whether it would be Beaumont or Athol Trollip to leave, I believe Trollip is too comfortable being back in Parliament to risk his position. Beaumont, on the other hand, is still young and possibly ambitious. I believe he and other senior ActionSA figures are increasingly disillusioned with Herman Mashaba’s leadership. With Mashaba unlikely to relinquish control, Beaumont may decide to exit the party. ActionSA has failed to capitalise on its 2024 electoral performance and appears directionless. Its recent partnership with the Forum 4 Service Delivery is a desperate move, revealing its inability to gain traction independently. Beaumont may choose to leave before the party’s decline becomes irreversible.
6. Lindiwe Mazibuko Will Make a Political Comeback
Lindiwe Mazibuko, after a hiatus from active politics, could make a return. Having built a solid reputation through Futurelect, which has successfully placed many young leaders in public office, Mazibuko’s own expertise in party politics and political mentoring may pave the way for her return to the political arena. Though she may not rejoin the DA under Steenhuisen’s leadership, a potential return under Geordin Hill-Lewis or even as an independent candidate could see her emerge as a force to be reckoned with. Alternatively, an advisory role within government could allow her to influence policy without the need for elected office.
7. Ramaphosa Will Overhaul His Cabinet
Once the GNU stabilises, a Cabinet reshuffle is inevitable. President Cyril Ramaphosa will likely retain non-ANC ministers but make significant adjustments within the ANC’s ranks, particularly as the party prepares for the 2026 local government elections and the critical 2027 leadership conference. The reshuffle will be aimed at solidifying ANC control and addressing internal party fractures that have become more apparent in recent months.
8. MK Will Be Plagued by Leadership Struggles
MK is set to experience a leadership crisis, particularly if it does not hold an elective conference before the 2026 local government elections. The party, which lacks a clear succession plan, will likely face internal factionalism and power struggles, with multiple figures vying for leadership. The ideological divisions within the party could fracture its cohesion, diminishing its influence as it struggles to find a unified vision for the future.
9. The Patriotic Alliance Will Groom a New Generation of Media-Savvy MPs
Gayton McKenzie’s Patriotic Alliance (PA) will ramp up its media strategy ahead of the 2026 elections. Following the high-profile appointment and subsequent recall of 20-year-old MP Cleo Wilskut, the PA will likely introduce more young, media-savvy candidates to capture the public’s attention. With his ministerial duties limiting his direct involvement in Parliament, McKenzie will need fresh faces to maintain the PA’s media presence. I expect him to bring in figures with compelling personal narratives that appeal to the PA voter base, such as former gangsters or reformed criminals, to fit the brand of populist redemption politics.
10. Dr. Mbuyiseni Ndlozi Will Join the ANC
Once seen as the future of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), Dr. Mbuyiseni Ndlozi’s departure from the party has heralded a shift in South Africa’s left-wing political landscape. While many still see his potential alignment with MK, a more probable scenario is his return to the ANC. With the ANC keen to present a new generation of leaders, Ndlozi could position himself as the face of youth-driven change within the party, hoping to capitalise on the growing faction of young, disillusioned ANC members.
While some of these scenarios seem plausible, others remain highly contingent on the unpredictable nature of South Africa's political environment. What is undeniable is that 2025 will be a pivotal year in South African politics, one that will define the trajectory of the nation in the years to come.